Numbers & models
BookSharp
Read basketball statistics through the games behind the numbers.
Interactive study
Explore the exampleWhy I’m interested
A threshold changes how we read a player's recent games. Three hits out of five looks convincing until you examine which games cleared the line and how widely the scores vary. I want basketball analysis to show that reasoning, with the observations beside the summary statistics.
Progress
The historical platform contains player-prop analysis, injury and data pipelines, and strategy code. The Rust example below calculates a mean, standard deviation, and threshold counts across five synthetic games. The next integration uses the original BookSharp analysis path.
See what the threshold changes
Choose a points threshold and inspect the same five synthetic games, their mean, and their spread.
Five synthetic games
Keep the five scores fixed and move the threshold. The hit count changes with the line, while the mean and standard deviation stay the same. The fraction describes these five observations.
- Mean
- 18.4
- Above threshold
- 3 / 5
- Standard deviation
- 3.44
Input
Game points: 14, 20, 18, 24, 16Result
3 / 5 observations exceed 16.5
Mean: 18.40
Population standard deviation: 3.4409Five synthetic games
Keep the five scores fixed and move the threshold. The hit count changes with the line, while the mean and standard deviation stay the same. The fraction describes these five observations.
- Mean
- 18.4
- Above threshold
- 2 / 5
- Standard deviation
- 3.44
Input
Game points: 14, 20, 18, 24, 16Result
2 / 5 observations exceed 18.5
Mean: 18.40
Population standard deviation: 3.4409Five synthetic games
Keep the five scores fixed and move the threshold. The hit count changes with the line, while the mean and standard deviation stay the same. The fraction describes these five observations.
- Mean
- 18.4
- Above threshold
- 1 / 5
- Standard deviation
- 3.44
Input
Game points: 14, 20, 18, 24, 16Result
1 / 5 observations exceed 22.5
Mean: 18.40
Population standard deviation: 3.4409Rust calculates the mean, population standard deviation, and observed threshold fraction from the synthetic scores. The next integration runs the sample through BookSharp's analysis path.
What comes next
Run the same sample through the BookSharp analysis path and compare its statistics with the Rust result.
Implementation and credits
How does a threshold change the observed hit rate across the same games?
Five synthetic games supply the points, mean, standard deviation, and observed threshold counts.
Choose a threshold and compare the games that clear it with the mean and spread.
Rust calculates the synthetic example. The original service retains its existing implementation.
A basketball analytics experiment with synthetic data for the public example.